Insights into the quantification and reporting of model-related uncertainty across different disciplines
January 1, 2022·,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,·
0 min read
Emily G. Simmonds
Kwaku Peprah Adjei
Christoffer Wold Andersen
Janne Cathrin Hetle Aspheim
Claudia Battistin
Nicola Bulso
Hannah M. Christensen
Benjamin Cretois
Ryan Cubero
Ivan A. Davidovich
Lisa Dickel
Benjamin Dunn
Etienne Dunn-Sigouin
Karin Dyrstad
Sigurd Einum
Donata Giglio
Haakon Gjerlow
Amelie Godefroidt
Ricardo Gonzalez-Gil
Soledad Gonzalo Cogno
Fabian Grosse
Paul Halloran
Mari F. Jensen
John James Kennedy
Peter Egge Langsaether
Jack H. Laverick
Debora Lederberger
Camille Li
Elizabeth G. Mandeville
Caitlin Mandeville
Espen Moe
Tobias Navarro Schroeder
David Nunan
Jorge Sicacha-Parada
Melanie Rae Simpson
Emma Sofie Skarstein
Clemens Spensberger
Richard Stevens
Aneesh C. Subramanian
Lea Svendsen
Ole Magnus Theisen
Connor Watret
Robert B. O'Hara
Abstract
Quantifying uncertainty associated with our models is the only way we can express how much we know about any phenomenon. Incomplete consideration of model-based uncertainties can lead to overstated conclusions with real-world impacts in diverse spheres, including conservation, epidemiology, climate science, and policy. Despite these potentially damaging consequences, we still know little about how different fields quantify and report uncertainty. We introduce the ``sources of uncertainty’’ framework, using it to conduct a systematic audit of model-related uncertainty quantification from seven scientific fields, spanning the biological, physical, and political sciences. Our interdisciplinary audit shows no field fully considers all possible sources of uncertainty, but each has its own best practices alongside shared outstanding challenges. We make ten easy-to-implement recommendations to improve the consistency, completeness, and clarity of reporting on model-related uncertainty. These recommendations serve as a guide to best practices across scientific fields and expand our toolbox for high-quality research.
Type
Publication
ISCIENCE
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