Dr. Timothy Higgins Launches Operational AI-Based Ensemble Forecasting System for West Coast Atmospheric Rivers
Accurate probabilistic forecasting of extreme weather events is critical for water management and disaster preparedness along the U.S. West Coast. We are excited to share that postdoctoral research associate and climate fellow Dr. Timothy B. Higgins has successfully developed and operationalized a cutting-edge, diffusion-based ensemble forecasting system for Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT).
The model — the culmination of the final chapter of Dr. Higgins’ dissertation — is now officially live and operational at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E).
Bridging the Gap in Probabilistic Forecasting
Traditional ensemble forecasting systems are computationally expensive, often limiting the number of scenarios meteorologists can simulate in real time. Dr. Higgins’ diffusion model fundamentally shifts this paradigm, demonstrating an ability to generate realistic 1,000-member ensembles within a highly manageable timeframe.
The model exhibits exceptional probabilistic forecasting skill, comparing favorably against premier global standards including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF IFS) and the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS).
A Collaborative Effort
This work began during Dr. Higgins’ time in the Advanced Study Program (ASP) Graduate Visitor Program at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), where he worked closely with William Chapman. The project was co-authored alongside Dr. Aneesh Subramanian (University of Colorado Boulder) and Dr. Luca Delle Monache (CW3E / Scripps Institution of Oceanography).
View the Live Model
While the formal manuscript is currently under peer review, the real-time model outputs are already publicly accessible:
View the live operational forecasting system on the CW3E website
Congratulations to Tim and the entire team on moving this impactful AI-driven climate research from theory into active operations!
