Michael J. Deflorio

Subseasonal Prediction of Impactful California Winter Weather in a Hybrid Dynamical‐Statistical Framework

Multi-Model Subseasonal Prediction Skill Assessment of Water Vapor Transport Associated With Atmospheric Rivers Over the Western US

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts of atmospheric rivers (ARs) are in high demand in the water supply management and flood control communities. This study focuses on a new …

Development of a Statistical Subseasonal Forecast Tool to Predict California Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation Based on MJO and QBO Activity

This paper examines the empirical relationship between the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and atmospheric river (AR) activity and …

Winter wet-dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California

Floods caused by atmospheric rivers and wildfires fanned by Santa Ana winds are common occurrences in California with devastating societal impacts. In this work, we show that …

Four Atmospheric Circulation Regimes Over the North Pacific and Their Relationship to California Precipitation on Daily to Seasonal Timescales

Precipitation in California is highly variable and not well forecasted on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. Understanding relationships between synoptic-scale …

Experimental Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Forecasting of Atmospheric Rivers Over the Western United States

A multimodel evaluation of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) hindcast skill of atmospheric rivers (ARs) out to 4-week lead over the western United States is presented for three …